Mexico's Midterm Elections: The Resurgence of the PRI and the Rise of a Protest Vote Sentiment

On the 5th of July Mexico will have midterm election that will likely result in a rearrangement of the partisan relations in the renewal of the lower house of congress, the Camara de Diputados. In a disturbing parallel development, the electoral process is also being characterized by an alarming rise in the number of people who will presumably abstain from voting or cast a protest vote.

In the 2006 presidential election the PAN, with Felipe Calderon, and the PRD, with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, won the most diputados, leaving the PRI in third place. However, in the current situation the public opinion polls are revealing a dramatic resurgence by the PRI (31% according to Consulta Mitofsky), a drop of the PAN to second place (26%), and the plummeting of the PRD to a distant third place (15%).

One of the key reasons for the resurgence of the PRI is the public unhappiness with the economic situation in Mexico, a condition that only worsened this year with the global economic crisis and the devastating economic impact of the influenza virus scare in Mexico. As an example, the Colegio Nacional de Economistas issued an estimate that the national economy would shrink by 10% this year. The PRI is perceived as the party that is best prepared to handle the current economic crisis. The improved public opinion is also strongly influenced by the strategy used by PRI party leaders over the past years to reposition themselves in the public eye, particularly in light of the confrontational relation between the PAN and the PRD. Critics would also argue that PRI governors have played a significant role in the process, spending lavishly in media campaigns, as in the case of Mexico State, whose governor (Enrique Peña Nieto) is already a strong conteder for the 2012 presidential election.

A worrysome new development that has drawn increasing attention from national and international authorities, political actors and observers/analysts is an apparent growing support among likely voters to either abstain from voting or casting annulled protest votes. This is interpreted as a protest vote against the existing political parties, which are faulted with the declining standard of living, rise in criminal activity, and a degrading of the national politics.

The protest vote's influence will largely depend on how great it actually is. Already, however, it should draw concern over how the rising interest is an alarming indication of the problems Mexico's emerging democracy faces.

For an interpretation of Mexico's current situation from a political actor who has played a fundamental role in the transition from state-party authoritarianism to emerging democracy, check out an interview with Cuauhtemoc Cardenas in Milenio Semanal.